By Shayan Gilbert Burke
On May 12, our cohort had the honor and privilege to hear from Dr. David Passig, a futurist, lecturer, and consultant who specializes in technological, social and educational futures. With our cohort, he focused on demographic and historical trends and futures related to the Jewish people in diaspora and within Israel. I don’t think anyone was prepared to hear his shocking predictions about the future of world Jewry, what that means for us as American Jews, what that will mean for the state of Israel going forward, and the relationships between Israel and Diaspora Jewry at large.
First, he showed us the general demographics trends throughout the world over the course of history and contrasted that with the history of the Jewish people. A few shocking statistics he shared were as follows: before the Holocaust, there were 17 million Jews worldwide, and if the state of Israel hadn’t been created in the wake of the Holocaust, there would have only been six to seven million Jews worldwide! Six million is nearly the amount of Jews living in Israel today! Another shocking statistic was that if the Holocaust hadn’t happened and the state of Israel had existed in 1938, the worldwide Jewish population would have been 34 million! I was blown away by this number, more than double the current population of world Jewry!
However, the more relevant statistics related to the future of world Jewry and what that means for Israel, the Israel-diaspora relationship, and us as Jewish leaders. He predicts that by the end of the 21st century, the population of world Jewry will be 24 million, and a whopping 80 percent of world Jewry, 20 million people, will be living in Israel. How can we reconcile this statistic as future Jewish leaders in North America? Do we fight to reverse the trends of assimilation, intermarriage, and low birth rates? I certainly don’t have a comprehensive solution to this problem. However, there’s no question in my mind that we, as Jewish leaders, will be the ones shaping the future of North American Jewry, maximizing the quantity of Jews we engage with high quality, innovative programs, and organizations that we will be involved with, create ourselves, and ultimately lead. Will we have to alter our approach? Most definitely. Just as the demographics and affiliations of world Jewry will change in America, Israel, and elsewhere worldwide, so too with their respective needs. The Jewish world needs us now more than ever to think of new ways to engage, inspire, and connect Jews, and our roles will continue to evolve in significant ways over time. Should we be afraid of these changes? I’d say completely on the contrary; we must embrace and lead the next epoch of Jewish history, ensuring the most promising, fulfilling, unifying future for the North American Jewish community and for world Jewry at-large.
